As I looked through the set piece data of Euro 2024, one thing has struck me, and that is that we didn’t see a single direct freekick goal in the whole tournament. Football fans worldwide have long cherished the sight of a well-taken direct freekick, a moment when skill and precision combine to create a spectacle that can change the course of a match.
However, recent data indicates a significant decline in the number of direct freekick attempts across major European football leagues. Looking at this trend over the last seven seasons from 2017/18 to 2023/24, reveals a broader shift in the game's tactical evolution.
Analytical Insights and Tactical Shifts
Several factors could be driving this decline. With analytical advancements, teams have become more selective with their freekick decisions. Instead of opting for direct shots, clubs are increasingly favoring intricate set-piece routines, showcasing a more strategic approach to maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities. This shift highlights a growing emphasis on controlling the ball and dictating the flow of the game.
Moreover, there has been a notable decrease in the number of fouls awarded in the final third of the pitch. Referees have become more lenient, especially with the advent of VAR, which has reduced the frequency of minor fouls being called​.
While James Ward-Prowse continues to excel, there are fewer specialists like him compared to a decade ago. This shift is reflected across other top leagues as well, where the proportion of freekicks taken directly at goal has decreased significantly​.
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Premier League: From Frequent to Rare
The Premier League, renowned for its competitive nature and skilled set-piece specialists, has seen a notable decrease in direct freekick attempts. In the 2017/18 season, there were 339 attempts, averaging 0.89 per game. This figure peaked slightly in 2019/20 with 380 attempts (1.00 per game), but the trend has since declined dramatically. The 2023/24 season recorded just 283 direct freekick attempts, a significant drop to 0.74 per game.
The data on freekick shots and goals in the Premier League further highlights this decline:
2018/19:Â 354 attempts, 23 goals (6.49% success rate)
2019/20:Â 380 attempts, 26 goals (6.84% success rate)
2020/21:Â 359 attempts, 13 goals (3.62% success rate)
2021/22:Â 337 attempts, 19 goals (5.64% success rate)
2022/23:Â 302 attempts, 18 goals (5.96% success rate)
2023/24:Â 283 attempts, 11 goals (3.88% success rate)
La Liga: A Similar Story in Spain
Spain's La Liga has mirrored the Premier League's decline. The 2017/18 season started with 463 direct freekick attempts, averaging 1.22 per game, but by 2023/24, this number had fallen to 335 attempts (0.88 per game). The peak was in the 2019/20 season with 430 attempts (1.13 per game), indicating that even in leagues known for technical prowess, the reliance on direct freekicks is waning.
Bundesliga: A Sharp Decline
The German Bundesliga's numbers are even more striking. Starting from 307 direct freekick attempts in the 2017/18 season (0.90 per game), the league saw a steep drop to 238 attempts in the 2023/24 season (0.70 per game). The sharpest decline occurred between the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, suggesting a possible tactical overhaul during this period or maybe the influence of Covid and a lack of crowd willing a strike on goal.
Serie A: Consistent Yet Declining
Italy's Serie A has maintained a relatively stable but declining trend in direct freekick attempts. From 405 attempts in the 2017/18 season (1.07 per game) to 314 in the 2023/24 season (0.83 per game), the league has seen a gradual reduction. The most noticeable drop occurred between the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, aligning with trends seen in other top leagues.
Ligue 1: The French Shift
Ligue 1 in France started with the highest average per game in the 2017/18 season at 1.35 (512 attempts). However, by the 2023/24 season, this had decreased to 250 attempts, averaging just 0.74 per game. This consistent drop underscores the broader European trend away from direct freekicks as a primary scoring method.
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Best Freekick Takers Since 2006/07
A review of the best freekick takers since 2006/07 provides additional context to the declining trend. Despite the presence of exceptional talent over the last two decades, with success rates far outstripping those of their respective leagues, this has not translated into an increased frequency of attempts:
Conclusion
For fans of the beautiful game, this trend represents another shift in the spectacle of football, something that Marcelo Bielsa recently spoke about in his assessment of the modern game:
More people watch football, but it's becoming less attractive because what made this game the best game in the world is not prioritised. No matter how many people watch the game, if you don't ensure that what's watched is pleasant, it will only benefit the business because the business only cares about how many people watch it. When time passes and each time the players who deserve to be watched become less and the game produced is less enjoyable, this artificial increase in spectators will end.
The data from the past seven seasons paints a clear picture: direct freekick attempts are becoming less frequent and less influential in top-tier football. Various factors could be contributing to this decline, including changes in training strategies, the increasing importance of more dynamic set-play tactics, and possibly even improvements in goalkeeping. The 'statistical importance' of maintaining possession has surged, with teams prioritizing ball control and strategic build-up play over taking risks with low-probability shots. From a coaching perspective, the low expected goals (xG) value associated with shots from distance is likely making direct freekicks less attractive compared to other options.
While the art of the direct freekick is far from dead, its role in the modern game is evolving. As teams adapt to data led insights, the once celebrated freekick may continue to decline, making those moments of magic even more special when they do occur.
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Article by Matt Steer, Performance Analysis masters student with the Global Institute of Sport, currently at HTAFC.
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